Megatrends

Other Studies

2020 Strategic Foresight Report

This first annual Strategic Foresight Report, Strategic Foresight - Charting the course towards a more resilient Europe, presents the Commission’s strategy to integrate strategic foresight into EU policy-making. It identifies first lessons from the COVID-19 crisis, introduces resilience as a new compass for EU policy-making and discusses the role of strategic foresight in strengthening the resilience of the EU and its Member States. The report analyses resilience along four interrelated dimensions – social and economic, geopolitical, green and digital – and explains its importance for achieving our strategic long-term objectives in the context of the digital, green and fair transitions. This report was published in September 2020.

2021 Strategic Foresight Report

The second annual Strategic Foresight Report, ‘The EU’s capacity and freedom to act’, presents a forward-looking and multidisciplinary perspective on important trends affecting the EU’s capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades, including: climate change and other environmental challenges, digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformations, pressure on democracy and values, as well as shifts in the global order and demography. It addresses emerging issues, uncertainties and choices that will shape the future of Europe and the world, and sheds light on possible policy responses for the EU’s open strategic autonomy. The 2021 Strategic Foresight Report has also identified 10 strategic areas where the EU can strengthen its capacity and freedom to act.

2022 Strategic Foresight Report

With a renewed sense of urgency linked to the rapid evolution of the geopolitical situation, the Strategic Foresight Report 2022 on ‘Twinning the green and digital transition in the new geopolitical context’ brings a forward-looking and comprehensive perspective on the interplay between the twin transitions towards 2050.
 
Both transitions are at the top of the EU’s political agenda and their interaction will have massive consequences for the future. While they are different in nature and each subject to specific dynamics, their twinning – i.e. their capacity to reinforce each other – deserves closer scrutiny. Better understanding these interactions is key to maximising their synergies and minimising their tensions. This is essential in the current geopolitical context where the EU aims at accelerating both green and digital transformation, ultimately strengthening the EU’s resilience and open strategic autonomy. The 2022 Strategic Foresight Report provides a future-oriented analysis of the major role played by digital technologies as well as the influence of geopolitical, economic, social and regulatory factors in the twinning. Based on their analysis, the report identifies ten key areas where action will be needed.

Drivers of change of relevance for Europe's Environment and sustainability

Building on the experience of both the European Environment Agency and its Eionet network, this report, published in May 2019, presents a synthesis of global and European megatrends with illustrations of key emerging trends, wild cards and uncertainties. It aims to inform about on‑going, emerging and potential future developments, raise awareness and contribute to the diffusion of anticipatory thinking.

Global Trends 2030 – Alternative Worlds

Report prepared by the National Intelligence Council of the United States of America, published in December 2012. For nearly two decades, the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends report has shaped strategic discussion within and outside the US government. The report reflects on factors such as globalisation, demographics and the environment, constituting a forward-looking document to support policy-makers in long-term planning. Since the first report was released in 1997, the number of readers has expanded, reaching an increasingly wider audience. A new report is published every four years after the US presidential election, so the next one should be presented very soon.

Global Trends 2040 - a more contested world

The 7th edition of the United States of America National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report was published in March 2021. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States, and for the World, during the next two decades.

Global Trends – In-Depth Analysis

Report prepared by the European Environment Agency, published in September 2015. The goal of this technical report is to complement the SOER 2015's assessment of global megatrends, by providing substantially more detailed information on each one. It covers aspects and topics that received less attention in the initial report and aims at stimulating reflection and discussion, while encouraging Europe's strategic decision-makers to take into account emerging threats and opportunities, seeking to ensure the development of environmental policies that are "suitable for the long-term."

Global Trends "Paradox of Progress"

Every four years, the National Intelligence Council publishes a new assessment of economic, political, social, technological and cultural trends. In creating the report, the NIC engages internal and external government experience in analysing trends such as globalisation, demography and environment, producing a forward-looking document to support policymakers in their long-term planning on key policy issues of worldwide importance.

Global trends shaping 2016 and the future

Report by EY Consultants, published in May 2016. After analysing the interaction between three drivers - technology, globalisation and demographics - EY has identified eight global megatrends that are shaping the future. These are heavily transformative trends that define the present and shape the future, due to their impact on companies, economies, industry, society and individual lives.

KPMG: What are global megatrends?

Report by KPMG Consultants, published in November 2013 The paper identifies the nine global megatrends with the most relevance to the future of governments. Although highly interlinked, the global megatrends identified can be grouped into trends that reflect changes in the status and expectations of individuals, changes in the global economy and changes in the physical environment.

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